Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Odds, Picks and Predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs (30-17-2) and Ottawa Senators (24-20-4) face off Saturday at Canadian Tire Centre. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+).
Matchup History and Current Form
In the season series, the Senators lead 1-0 after winning 3-0 in Toronto on November 12th. The Maple Leafs have lost their last game 5-1 to the Columbus Blue Jackets, ending their 3-game winning streak. Toronto has struggled with defense and goaltending, allowing 3 or more goals in each of their last 7 outings. The Senators have also been held scoreless in their last 2 games and have been blanked 5 times in their last 11 outings since January 3rd.
Betting Trends
In the past 10 meetings between these teams, they have split 5-5, with 4 of those games decided by a single goal. The road team has won 9 of the past 10 in this series, and the Over has hit 5-3 in the previous 8 meetings.
Goalies
Projected goalies for the game are Joseph Woll for the Maple Leafs and Leevi Merilainen for the Senators. Woll has won his last 3 starts but has allowed 3 or more goals in 5 straight games. Merilainen, on the other hand, has allowed 2 or fewer goals in 8 of his last 10 starts.
Predictions
Moneyline: The Senators (-105) are worth considering as slight underdogs at home. Ottawa has struggled to score lately, but they should be able to find the back of the net against Woll and the Maple Leafs (-115). Ottawa has won 3 straight in this series, and the Leafs are without top-line winger Matthew Knies.
Puck Line: The Senators +1.5 (-285) will cost you almost 3 times your potential return if you need some insurance but cannot bring yourself to bet Ottawa straight up. Stick to the moneyline instead.
Over/Under: OVER 5.5 (-115) is a solid play based on Woll’s recent struggles and the Leafs' high-scoring offense. The Over has hit 4-1 in the past 5 meetings in the series and 5-3 in the past 8 battles for Ontario. The Leafs have averaged 4.3 goals per game in their last 4 games while allowing 3 or more goals in 7 straight. The Senators have played Under recently, but the Maple Leafs' offense could be too much for them to handle.
Prediction: Senators 4, Maple Leafs 3